RUSH TRANSCRIPT But with ░░░░░░░░ of volatility par for ░░░░░░░░ course this year When ░░░░░░░░ think of arrange for ░░░░░░░░ this year s range ░░░░░░░░ down trending suggesting that ░░░░░░░░ bears may have something ░░░░░░░░ dangerous but now maybe ░░░░░░░░ calm for the summer ░░░░░░░░ talk more about this ░░░░░░░░ s bring in Brian ░░░░░░░░ president of mjp wealth ░░░░░░░░ Over the summer there ░░░░░░░░ that adage sell in ░░░░░░░░ and go away and ░░░░░░░░ on the day it ░░░░░░░░ working or it is ░░░░░░░░ but given these uncertainties ░░░░░░░░ it does not seem ░░░░░░░░ go along with a ░░░░░░░░ in stocks That is ░░░░░░░░ and a good point ░░░░░░░░ of us when you ░░░░░░░░ at volatility in the ░░░░░░░░ I find it quite ░░░░░░░░ over the course of ░░░░░░░░ year that we really ░░░░░░░░ stayed under about 40 ░░░░░░░░ the vix for the ░░░░░░░░ of the year I ░░░░░░░░ like it is a ░░░░░░░░ bit of a push ░░░░░░░░ between the bulls and ░░░░░░░░ trying to say is ░░░░░░░░ recession priced into the ░░░░░░░░ are we pricing incorrectly ░░░░░░░░ outlook from the Fed ░░░░░░░░ uncertainty around inflation And ░░░░░░░░ think with the upcoming ░░░░░░░░ meeting and what we ░░░░░░░░ going to here in ░░░░░░░░ that will will give ░░░░░░░░ will give people the ░░░░░░░░ to say is a ░░░░░░░░ and eminent recession imminent ░░░░░░░░ should we stay away ░░░░░░░░ is this an opportunity ░░░░░░░░ when you look back ░░░░░░░░ the previous recession usually ░░░░░░░░ market goes down 24 ░░░░░░░░ post World War II ░░░░░░░░ we have touched 20 ░░░░░░░░ and I think the ░░░░░░░░ and high yield credit ░░░░░░░░ s giving us some ░░░░░░░░ of where investors are ░░░░░░░░ stocks the range is ░░░░░░░░ true Oregon a down ░░░░░░░░ range so very dangerous ░░░░░░░░ with the vix we ░░░░░░░░ been in the same ░░░░░░░░ the whole time and ░░░░░░░░ you bring in the ░░░░░░░░ of yields spreads had ░░░░░░░░ widening a bit but ░░░░░░░░ vix and yields tend ░░░░░░░░ track each other The ░░░░░░░░ has come in so ░░░░░░░░ investors feel a little ░░░░░░░░ than credit investors in ░░░░░░░░ ways Which side do ░░░░░░░░ think is right We ░░░░░░░░ definitely in the camp ░░░░░░░░ we think there s ░░░░░░░░ a recession over the ░░░░░░░░ of the year but ░░░░░░░░ you look at the ░░░░░░░░ yield credit and the ░░░░░░░░ it moves in lockstep ░░░░░░░░ it has been a ░░░░░░░░ indicator of risk taking ░░░░░░░░ s interesting is when ░░░░░░░░ look at the high ░░░░░░░░ credit market now we ░░░░░░░░ seen an inflection point ░░░░░░░░ have seen that come ░░░░░░░░ and I think that ░░░░░░░░ an indication that a ░░░░░░░░ of the Fed policy ░░░░░░░░ been priced into the ░░░░░░░░ and underneath that we ░░░░░░░░ also seen less volatility ░░░░░░░░ the overall bond market ░░░░░░░░ really I think moving ░░░░░░░░ you have inflation you ░░░░░░░░ that inflation story and ░░░░░░░░ headline inflation does come ░░░░░░░░ over the balance of ░░░░░░░░ year with improvements in ░░░░░░░░ chain and demand destruction ░░░░░░░░ think the Fed changes ░░░░░░░░ tone and looking where ░░░░░░░░ vix is now some ░░░░░░░░ poll there might be ░░░░░░░░ there and the vix ░░░░░░░░ continue to decline Recession ░░░░░░░░ and the vix seems ░░░░░░░░ support you on that ░░░░░░░░ some of the major ░░░░░░░░ are still in bear ░░░░░░░░ seem to be forecasting ░░░░░░░░ months out so it ░░░░░░░░ seem stock investors are ░░░░░░░░ something more nefarious So ░░░░░░░░ you don t think ░░░░░░░░ is recessionary similar to ░░░░░░░░ or 2008 is this ░░░░░░░░ like 2018 If I ░░░░░░░░ in 2018 there was ░░░░░░░░ lot of choppiness The ░░░░░░░░ was ok and then ░░░░░░░░ had that briefly ugly ░░░░░░░░ I think that is ░░░░░░░░ great point I do ░░░░░░░░ your comparison because back ░░░░░░░░ 2018 investors overreacted to ░░░░░░░░ pessimism of the Fed ░░░░░░░░ clamping on the economy ░░░░░░░░ the rate increase cycle ░░░░░░░░ I think what we ░░░░░░░░ looking at now is ░░░░░░░░ underlying pessimism in the ░░░░░░░░ the confidence indexes are ░░░░░░░░ lowes we haven t ░░░░░░░░ since the 2008 financial ░░░░░░░░ and when you look ░░░░░░░░ the jobs report showing ░░░░░░░░ wages haven t materially ░░░░░░░░ we know rents are ░░░░░░░░ up investors are concerned ░░░░░░░░ I think the vix ░░░░░░░░ at this point where ░░░░░░░░ tug of war is ░░░░░░░░ and we are at ░░░░░░░░ equilibrium now are people ░░░░░░░░ to make a decision ░░░░░░░░ to your earlier point ░░░░░░░░ make a decision To ░░░░░░░░ earlier point are you ░░░░░░░░ for safe haven assets ░░░░░░░░ are you looking at ░░░░░░░░ as an overreaction and ░░░░░░░░ inflation will come down ░░░░░░░░ it is time you ░░░░░░░░ We are in the ░░░░░░░░ of looking for opportunities ░░░░░░░░ next couple months Well ░░░░░░░░ Vendig thank you for ░░░░░░░░ us for options insight ░░░░░░░░ all that great stuff ░░░░░░░░ from New York this ░░░░░░░░ bloomberg Traders have been ░░░░░░░░ that the rebound will ░░░░░░░░ last?