RUSH TRANSCRIPT In the ░░░░░░░░ term the broader GDP ░░░░░░░░ trend will dominate Our ░░░░░░░░ is pretty cautious Lisa ░░░░░░░░ Davis joining us now ░░░░░░░░ your experience at Goldman ░░░░░░░░ do you agree with ░░░░░░░░ Do you see this ░░░░░░░░ because of the fundamentals ░░░░░░░░ the Fed but because ░░░░░░░░ momentum and where we ░░░░░░░░ Nancy momentum is definitely ░░░░░░░░ you have to take ░░░░░░░░ consideration looking at your ░░░░░░░░ diversification Whenever you have ░░░░░░░░ in any market taking ░░░░░░░░ other side is usually ░░░░░░░░ good risk reward Right ░░░░░░░░ even the realized inflation ░░░░░░░░ at a 40 year ░░░░░░░░ future inflation expectations are ░░░░░░░░ well anchored They are ░░░░░░░░ little over the 2 ░░░░░░░░ term target from the ░░░░░░░░ That presents an opportunity ░░░░░░░░ investors who maybe were ░░░░░░░░ to have falling CPI ░░░░░░░░ maybe not What the ░░░░░░░░ is giving you is ░░░░░░░░ inflation expectations at very ░░░░░░░░ levels Lisa how do ░░░░░░░░ get there Do we ░░░░░░░░ there with some sort ░░░░░░░░ recession or with the ░░░░░░░░ causing rates to go ░░░░░░░░ much further in the ░░░░░░░░ term Do we get ░░░░░░░░ gradual soft landing Nancy ░░░░░░░░ bond market has a ░░░░░░░░ inverted yield curve That ░░░░░░░░ the Fed sets the ░░░░░░░░ rate but the market ░░░░░░░░ interest rates at different ░░░░░░░░ You could go buy ░░░░░░░░ t bill and earn ░░░░░░░░ yield than you could ░░░░░░░░ own a 10 year ░░░░░░░░ The bond market is ░░░░░░░░ that the Fed will ░░░░░░░░ rates this year 100 ░░░░░░░░ points of additional hikes ░░░░░░░░ into 2022 the Fed ░░░░░░░░ hike and create a ░░░░░░░░ low growth environment Equities ░░░░░░░░ the other hand are ░░░░░░░░ much more optimistic than ░░░░░░░░ bond market You have ░░░░░░░░ tale of two different ░░░░░░░░ going on Which one ░░░░░░░░ going to be right ░░░░░░░░ which do you weigh ░░░░░░░░ on Nancy it is ░░░░░░░░ to say I think ░░░░░░░░ bond market is very ░░░░░░░░ in the sense we ░░░░░░░░ had one lower inflation ░░░░░░░░ which is great The ░░░░░░░░ we have to keep ░░░░░░░░ mind is how the ░░░░░░░░ is calculated That s ░░░░░░░░ consumer price index calculated ░░░░░░░░ the bureau of labor ░░░░░░░░ Quadratic We wrote a ░░░░░░░░ a quarter ago at ░░░░░░░░ start of q1 talking ░░░░░░░░ how the case shiller ░░░░░░░░ health prices is up ░░░░░░░░ 20 rent prices at ░░░░░░░░ time were up 5 ░░░░░░░░ 7 it is a ░░░░░░░░ indicator So much of ░░░░░░░░ is owner occupied rent ░░░░░░░░ that shelter component We ░░░░░░░░ the market is pretty ░░░░░░░░ that future inflation expectations ░░░░░░░░ be well anchored That ░░░░░░░░ opportunity for investors to ░░░░░░░░ inflation protection to their ░░░░░░░░ at low levels Lisa ░░░░░░░░ they are using cash ░░░░░░░░ putting it into every ░░░░░░░░ else Take a look ░░░░░░░░ Bank of America global ░░░░░░░░ They put out with ░░░░░░░░ the flows of the ░░░░░░░░ The lowest bond week ░░░░░░░░ 2021 The largest inflow ░░░░░░░░ U S growth funds ░░░░░░░░ December of 2021 How ░░░░░░░░ are you leaning into ░░░░░░░░ Big Tech trade The ░░░░░░░░ they have rallied more ░░░░░░░░ 20 since the lows ░░░░░░░░ June Many people say ░░░░░░░░ will do well in ░░░░░░░░ and strength Nancy I ░░░░░░░░ think the interesting point ░░░░░░░░ people are correlating the ░░░░░░░░ of interest rates to ░░░░░░░░ stocks That is a ░░░░░░░░ viewpoint right now I ░░░░░░░░ we will see whether ░░░░░░░░ is the case or ░░░░░░░░ I think you have ░░░░░░░░ keep in mind when ░░░░░░░░ are looking at you ░░░░░░░░ talking about Chinese companies ░░░░░░░░ lot of these companies ░░░░░░░░ lot of the earnings ░░░░░░░░ is coming out of ░░░░░░░░ Tesla for instance 25 ░░░░░░░░ the revenue is from ░░░░░░░░ consumers I think you ░░░░░░░░ to look at U ░░░░░░░░ Growth stocks versus maybe ░░░░░░░░ growth stocks to see ░░░░░░░░ there is an opportunity ░░░░░░░░ Oil really has been ░░░░░░░░ story for me throughout ░░░░░░░░ week We have seen ░░░░░░░░ decline in gas prices ░░░░░░░░ underpins what you are ░░░░░░░░ This expectation the belief ░░░░░░░░ inflation will remain well ░░░░░░░░ over the longer term ░░░░░░░░ at higher oil prices ░░░░░░░░ year Take a listen ░░░░░░░░ forecast retail gap has ░░░░░░░░ going back to five ░░░░░░░░ into year end We ░░░░░░░░ that is the level ░░░░░░░░ which we secede sustained ░░░░░░░░ to solve the market ░░░░░░░░ Print going to 130 ░░░░░░░░ barrel at the end ░░░░░░░░ the year to reflect ░░░░░░░░ need for sustained high ░░░░░░░░ Lisa Nancy what happens ░░░░░░░░ prices go up into ░░░░░░░░ end did we get ░░░░░░░░ reversal of this inflationary ░░░░░░░░ we have seen playfully ░░░░░░░░ this past weekend over ░░░░░░░░ past few weeks What ░░░░░░░░ your view on that ░░░░░░░░ critical is oil to ░░░░░░░░ call Nancy oil is ░░░░░░░░ and gas prices have ░░░░░░░░ falling nationally Gas prices ░░░░░░░░ back below four dollars ░░░░░░░░ is hugely supportive of ░░░░░░░░ economy I think about ░░░░░░░░ trucking industry and help ░░░░░░░░ need to transport goods ░░░░░░░░ services to consumers The ░░░░░░░░ is nobody knows where ░░░░░░░░ is going to go ░░░░░░░░ is a relatively low ░░░░░░░░ in the CPI The ░░░░░░░░ that concerns me is ░░░░░░░░ shelter component the third ░░░░░░░░ the index As the ░░░░░░░░ are one year you ░░░░░░░░ more people renewing leases ░░░░░░░░ would likely see higher ░░░░░░░░ in the future I ░░░░░░░░ that is the big ░░░░░░░░ CPI is the consumer ░░░░░░░░ index It is like ░░░░░░░░ other index like the ░░░░░░░░ Jones index over the ░░░░░░░░ or the NASDAQ It ░░░░░░░░ not the only way ░░░░░░░░ measure inflation It is ░░░░░░░░ important but the Fed ░░░░░░░░ at many other variables ░░░░░░░░ the yield curve which ░░░░░░░░ massively inverted It has ░░░░░░░░ have the word Lisa ░░░░░░░░ at crude down more ░░░░░░░░ 1 92 and change ░░░░░░░░ barrel Coming up some ░░░░░░░░ China s state owned ░░░░░░░░ delisting in the United ░░░░░░░░ There is Covid in ░░░░░░░░ that his emergency that ░░░░░░░░ emerging Geopolitical aspects with ░░░░░░░░ are there Lisa we ░░░░░░░░ touch on the shrinking ░░░░░░░░ the shrinking waterways over ░░░░░░░░ Europe We are seeing ░░░░░░░░ persistent rally in the ░░░░░░░░ few minutes of trading ░░░░░░░░ is bloomberg Ritika this ░░░░░░░░ ritika gupta Coming up ░░░░░░░░ Jim Clyburn of South ░░░░░░░░ jordi webb That is ░░░░░░░░ 00 P M New ░░░░░░░░ time This is bloomberg ░░░░░░░░ is still Covid in ░░░░░░░░ that is emerging A ░░░░░░░░ uncertainty Geopolitical aspects of ░░░░░░░░ China Taiwan are there ░░░░░░░░ other things We don ░░░░░░░░ think we are in ░░░░░░░░ clear with respect to ░░░░░░░░ The dollar trade could ░░░░░░░░ back Lisa five of ░░░░░░░░ s largest state owned ░░░░░░░░ delisting in United States ░░░░░░░░ more now Sonali Basak ░░░░░░░░ us What we know ░░░░░░░░ share price action in ░░░░░░░░ of these big adrs ░░░░░░░░ alibaba which is one ░░░░░░░░ the biggest U S ░░░░░░░░ of all time You ░░░░░░░░ seeing that extend to ░░░░░░░░ areas The golden dragon ░░░░░░░░ index also down Petrochina ░░░░░░░░ China petroleum and chemical ░░░░░░░░ down more than 3 ░░░░░░░░ These are companies that ░░░░░░░░ they would delist Alibaba ░░░░░░░░ not said that but ░░░░░░░░ said they would seek ░░░░░░░░ primary listing in Hong ░░░░░░░░ which many folks in ░░░░░░░░ markets he is a ░░░░░░░░ to this I want ░░░░░░░░ point out these companies ░░░░░░░░ long said this is ░░░░░░░░ matter of national security ░░░░░░░░ and China prohibiting from ░░░░░░░░ the key things U ░░░░░░░░ Regulators want them to ░░░░░░░░ turn over audit information ░░░░░░░░ watchdog in the U ░░░░░░░░ the head of the ░░░░░░░░ which does the auditing ░░░░░░░░ says these delistingss will ░░░░░░░░ stop auto demands A ░░░░░░░░ of a standoff here ░░░░░░░░ are seeing a significant ░░░░░░░░ more than 65 and ░░░░░░░░ golden dragon China index ░░░░░░░░ February of 2021 which ░░░░░░░░ when a lot of ░░░░░░░░ started to come to ░░░░░░░░ How many more will ░░░░░░░░ plans and will there ░░░░░░░░ an end to the ░░░░░░░░ You look at this ░░░░░░░░ from 2020 to now ░░░░░░░░ sheer amount of listings ░░░░░░░░ have seen in recent ░░░░░░░░ rack up to the ░░░░░░░░ of billions of dollars ░░░░░░░░ is a big deal ░░░░░░░░ just for these companies ░░░░░░░░ some of the biggest ░░░░░░░░ giants in the world ░░░░░░░░ the many banks and ░░░░░░░░ globally that have started ░░░░░░░░ invest in them Will ░░░░░░░░ capital market start to ░░░░░░░░ for these Chinese companies ░░░░░░░░ in the United States ░░░░░░░░ these delisting s continue ░░░░░░░░ Sonali Basak thanks so ░░░░░░░░ In Europe headwinds pileup ░░░░░░░░ s rhine river shrinking ░░░░░░░░ a critical level they ░░░░░░░░ upend traits about the ░░░░░░░░ Abigail Doolittle has been ░░░░░░░░ the headlines Abigail this ░░░░░░░░ interesting because we have ░░░░░░░░ headline about what you ░░░░░░░░ talking about the river ░░░░░░░░ to the 40 centimeter ░░░░░░░░ at a key German ░░░░░░░░ The river starts in ░░░░░░░░ netherlands or flows through ░░░░░░░░ netherlands and then through ░░░░░░░░ and Switzerland Kalb is ░░░░░░░░ for castles but it ░░░░░░░░ on the right side ░░░░░░░░ the rhine river It ░░░░░░░░ at the lowest point ░░░░░░░░ s been since 2018 ░░░░░░░░ is a concern not ░░░░░░░░ from the standpoint of ░░░░░░░░ broader macro standpoint around ░░░░░░░░ change but it could ░░░░░░░░ the economy Becoming uneconomical ░░░░░░░░ barges that talk commodities ░░░░░░░░ diesel and coal through ░░░░░░░░ part of the river ░░░░░░░░ could make it more ░░░░░░░░ I want to point ░░░░░░░░ another headline earlier today ░░░░░░░░ was declared in most ░░░░░░░░ England by the government ░░░░░░░░ have so many different ░░░░░░░░ headlines right now The ░░░░░░░░ K grid issues the ░░░░░░░░ wave hitting Europe that ░░░░░░░░ were talking about The ░░░░░░░░ governor speeding up the ░░░░░░░░ plan We are in ░░░░░░░░ time of extreme weather ░░░░░░░░ the river going to ░░░░░░░░ low level the rhine ░░░░░░░░ it does again create ░░░░░░░░ and worries about the ░░░░░░░░ and whether or not ░░░░░░░░ s going to create ░░░░░░░░ issue for transporting some ░░░░░░░░ those commodities down the ░░░░░░░░ river Lisa great work ░░░░░░░░ Davis back with us ░░░░░░░░ want to stick on ░░░░░░░░ How much have we ░░░░░░░░ in shocks already to ░░░░░░░░ valuations there and how ░░░░░░░░ pain can be priced ░░░░░░░░ the remainder of the ░░░░░░░░ Nancy it s a ░░░░░░░░ situation and there are ░░░░░░░░ factors whether they are ░░░░░░░░ drought higher commodity prices ░░░░░░░░ are accumulating all at ░░░░░░░░ It looks pretty dire ░░░░░░░░ m nervous as we ░░░░░░░░ into the winter season ░░░░░░░░ the heating situation about ░░░░░░░░ heating situation They are ░░░░░░░░ inflationary This is going ░░░░░░░░ be more supply chain ░░░░░░░░ higher costs of fuel ░░░░░░░░ costs of transportation This ░░░░░░░░ adding including the drought ░░░░░░░░ the global problem of ░░░░░░░░ It is not just ░░░░░░░░ U S thing It ░░░░░░░░ everywhere and is hitting ░░░░░░░░ markets Lisa how sticky ░░░░░░░░ this This is how ░░░░░░░░ adage goes Some people ░░░░░░░░ that is what we ░░░░░░░░ hearing in the gasoline ░░░░░░░░ Is that what we ░░░░░░░░ going to see regardless ░░░░░░░░ what central banks globally ░░░░░░░░ Nancy gasoline prices have ░░░░░░░░ going down We are ░░░░░░░░ that in the numbers ░░░░░░░░ last CPI print was ░░░░░░░░ huge relief for the ░░░░░░░░ in terms of their ░░░░░░░░ to say the rate ░░░░░░░░ are having an impact ░░░░░░░░ before last week had ░░░░░░░░ been going up since ░░░░░░░░ of 2021 Straight up ░░░░░░░░ no down six The ░░░░░░░░ is will the Fed ░░░░░░░░ rate hikes solve this ░░░░░░░░ side issue Will it ░░░░░░░░ the labor market crisis ░░░░░░░░ it solve drought Knowing ░░░░░░░░ cannot control all these ░░░░░░░░ geopolitical and weather related ░░░░░░░░ energy related factors People ░░░░░░░░ not overthink it too ░░░░░░░░ Inflation protection is something ░░░░░░░░ well diversified portfolio should ░░░░░░░░ I feel like people ░░░░░░░░ trying to take or ░░░░░░░░ a macro to worst ░░░░░░░░ whether inflation is going ░░░░░░░░ be increasing or decreasing ░░░░░░░░ live in a real ░░░░░░░░ especially if you are ░░░░░░░░ retiree You will not ░░░░░░░░ from wage inflation Having ░░░░░░░░ well diversified portfolio includes ░░░░░░░░ inflation protection Lisa before ░░░░░░░░ let you go with ░░░░░░░░ experience with derivatives at ░░░░░░░░ Sachs and quadratic how ░░░░░░░░ is the market to ░░░░░░░░ shock We talked about ░░░░░░░░ whether Abby was highlighting ░░░░░░░░ well as the potential ░░░░░░░░ other geopolitical disruptions Is ░░░░░░░░ market prepared to tolerate ░░░░░░░░ or will the price ░░░░░░░░ be more volatile in ░░░░░░░░ vulnerabilities more pronounced Nancy ░░░░░░░░ thing investors have to ░░░░░░░░ in mind if they ░░░░░░░░ the bloomberg ag index ░░░░░░░░ core fixed income the ░░░░░░░░ a third of it ░░░░░░░░ U S mortgages Mortgages ░░░░░░░░ short fixed income volatility ░░░░░░░░ homeowner can prepay their ░░░░░░░░ whenever they want The ░░░░░░░░ of the mortgage is ░░░░░░░░ options to homeowners With ░░░░░░░░ Fed reducing the balance ░░░░░░░░ with qt and increasing ░░░░░░░░ September it s important ░░░░░░░░ investors to understand on ░░░░░░░░ bond side of their ░░░░░░░░ where they are short ░░░░░░░░ There s a lot ░░░░░░░░ intention in headlines from ░░░░░░░░ vix The vix is ░░░░░░░░ equity volatility Most inventors ░░░░░░░░ of their holdings and ░░░░░░░░ fixed income and the ░░░░░░░░ the indices are constructed ░░░░░░░░ short fixed income volatility ░░░░░░░░ is what we want ░░░░░░░░ have people focus on ░░░░░░░░ what you own Don ░░░░░░░░ go by name only ░░░░░░░░ that say core fixed ░░░░░░░░ might not be very ░░░░░░░░ Lisa Nancy Davis thank ░░░░░░░░ for being with us ░░░░░░░░ have a wonderful weekend ░░░░░░░░ up market moving event ░░░░░░░░ need to watch in ░░░░░░░░ trading diary RUSH TRANSCRIPT ░░░░░░░░ the longer term the ░░░░░░░░ GDP inflation trend will ░░░░░░░░ Our view is pretty ░░░░░░░░ Lisa Nancy Davis joining ░░░░░░░░ now With your experience ░░░░░░░░ Goldman Sachs do you ░░░░░░░░ with mandy Do you ░░░░░░░░ this sustainable because of ░░░░░░░░ fundamentals or the Fed ░░░░░░░░ because of momentum and ░░░░░░░░ we are Nancy momentum ░░░░░░░░ definitely something you have ░░░░░░░░ take into consideration looking ░░░░░░░░ your portfolio diversification Whenever ░░░░░░░░ have consensus in any ░░░░░░░░ taking the other side ░░░░░░░░ usually a good risk ░░░░░░░░ Right now even the ░░░░░░░░ inflation is at a ░░░░░░░░ year high future inflation ░░░░░░░░ are very well anchored ░░░░░░░░ are very little over ░░░░░░░░ 2 long term target ░░░░░░░░ the Fed That presents ░░░░░░░░ opportunity for investors who ░░░░░░░░ were going to have ░░░░░░░░ CPI prints maybe not ░░░░░░░░ the market is giving ░░░░░░░░ is future inflation expectations ░░░░░░░░ very low levels Lisa ░░░░░░░░ do we get there ░░░░░░░░ we get there with ░░░░░░░░ sort of recession or ░░░░░░░░ the Fed causing rates ░░░░░░░░ go up much further ░░░░░░░░ the short term Do ░░░░░░░░ get a gradual soft ░░░░░░░░ Nancy the bond market ░░░░░░░░ a fully inverted yield ░░░░░░░░ That means the Fed ░░░░░░░░ the policy rate but ░░░░░░░░ market sets interest rates ░░░░░░░░ different tenors You could ░░░░░░░░ buy a t bill ░░░░░░░░ earn more yield than ░░░░░░░░ could to own a ░░░░░░░░ year treasury The bond ░░░░░░░░ is prized that the ░░░░░░░░ will hike rates this ░░░░░░░░ 100 basis points of ░░░░░░░░ hikes priced into 2022 ░░░░░░░░ Fed will hike and ░░░░░░░░ a disinflationary low growth ░░░░░░░░ Equities on the other ░░░░░░░░ are definitely much more ░░░░░░░░ than the bond market ░░░░░░░░ have this tale of ░░░░░░░░ different markets going on ░░░░░░░░ one is going to ░░░░░░░░ right Lisa which do ░░░░░░░░ weigh in on Nancy ░░░░░░░░ is hard to say ░░░░░░░░ think the bond market ░░░░░░░░ very complete in the ░░░░░░░░ we ve had one ░░░░░░░░ inflation print which is ░░░░░░░░ The thing we have ░░░░░░░░ keep in mind is ░░░░░░░░ the CPI is calculated ░░░░░░░░ s the consumer price ░░░░░░░░ calculated by the bureau ░░░░░░░░ labor statistics Quadratic We ░░░░░░░░ a letter a quarter ░░░░░░░░ at the start of ░░░░░░░░ talking about how the ░░░░░░░░ shiller index health prices ░░░░░░░░ up about 20 rent ░░░░░░░░ at the time were ░░░░░░░░ 5 now 7 it ░░░░░░░░ a lagging indicator So ░░░░░░░░ of CPI is owner ░░░░░░░░ rent and that shelter ░░░░░░░░ We think the market ░░░░░░░░ pretty optimistic that future ░░░░░░░░ expectations will be well ░░░░░░░░ That presents opportunity for ░░░░░░░░ to add inflation protection ░░░░░░░░ their portfolio at low ░░░░░░░░ Lisa certainly they are ░░░░░░░░ cash and putting it ░░░░░░░░ every thing else Take ░░░░░░░░ look at Bank of ░░░░░░░░ global research They put ░░░░░░░░ with epfr the flows ░░░░░░░░ the week The lowest ░░░░░░░░ week since 2021 The ░░░░░░░░ inflow the U S ░░░░░░░░ funds since December of ░░░░░░░░ How much are you ░░░░░░░░ into the Big Tech ░░░░░░░░ The idea they have ░░░░░░░░ more than 20 since ░░░░░░░░ lows in June Many ░░░░░░░░ say they will do ░░░░░░░░ in weakness and strength ░░░░░░░░ I do think the ░░░░░░░░ point that people are ░░░░░░░░ the level of interest ░░░░░░░░ to growth stocks That ░░░░░░░░ a common viewpoint right ░░░░░░░░ I guess we will ░░░░░░░░ whether it is the ░░░░░░░░ or not I think ░░░░░░░░ have to keep in ░░░░░░░░ when you are looking ░░░░░░░░ you were talking about ░░░░░░░░ companies A lot of ░░░░░░░░ companies a lot of ░░░░░░░░ earnings growth is coming ░░░░░░░░ of China Tesla for ░░░░░░░░ 25 of the revenue ░░░░░░░░ from Chinese consumers I ░░░░░░░░ you have to look ░░░░░░░░ U S Growth stocks ░░░░░░░░ maybe Chinese growth stocks ░░░░░░░░ see if there is ░░░░░░░░ opportunity there Oil really ░░░░░░░░ been the story for ░░░░░░░░ throughout the week We ░░░░░░░░ seen the decline in ░░░░░░░░ prices It underpins what ░░░░░░░░ are saying This expectation ░░░░░░░░ belief that inflation will ░░░░░░░░ well anchored over the ░░░░░░░░ term Looking at higher ░░░░░░░░ prices this year Take ░░░░░░░░ listen The forecast retail ░░░░░░░░ has them going back ░░░░░░░░ five dollars into year ░░░░░░░░ We think that is ░░░░░░░░ level at which we ░░░░░░░░ sustained prices to solve ░░░░░░░░ market deficit Print going ░░░░░░░░ 130 a barrel at ░░░░░░░░ end of the year ░░░░░░░░ reflect this need for ░░░░░░░░ high prices Lisa Nancy ░░░░░░░░ happens if prices go ░░░░░░░░ into year end did ░░░░░░░░ get a reversal of ░░░░░░░░ inflationary impulse we have ░░░░░░░░ playfully markets this past ░░░░░░░░ over the past few ░░░░░░░░ What is your view ░░░░░░░░ that How critical is ░░░░░░░░ to your call Nancy ░░░░░░░░ is important and gas ░░░░░░░░ have been falling nationally ░░░░░░░░ prices are back below ░░░░░░░░ dollars which is hugely ░░░░░░░░ of the economy I ░░░░░░░░ about the trucking industry ░░░░░░░░ help companies need to ░░░░░░░░ goods and services to ░░░░░░░░ The question is nobody ░░░░░░░░ where oil is going ░░░░░░░░ go Oil is a ░░░░░░░░ low weight in the ░░░░░░░░ The thing that concerns ░░░░░░░░ is the shelter component ░░░░░░░░ third of the index ░░░░░░░░ the leases are one ░░░░░░░░ you have more people ░░░░░░░░ leases You would likely ░░░░░░░░ higher CPI in the ░░░░░░░░ I think that is ░░░░░░░░ big point CPI is ░░░░░░░░ consumer price index It ░░░░░░░░ like any other index ░░░░░░░░ the dow Jones index ░░░░░░░░ the russell or the ░░░░░░░░ It is not the ░░░░░░░░ way to measure inflation ░░░░░░░░ is obviously important but ░░░░░░░░ Fed looks at many ░░░░░░░░ variables including the yield ░░░░░░░░ which is massively inverted ░░░░░░░░ has to have the ░░░░░░░░ Lisa looking at crude ░░░░░░░░ more than 1 92 ░░░░░░░░ change per barrel Coming ░░░░░░░░ some of China s ░░░░░░░░ owned giants delisting in ░░░░░░░░ United States There is ░░░░░░░░ in China that his ░░░░░░░░ that is emerging Geopolitical ░░░░░░░░ with Taiwan are there ░░░░░░░░ we will touch on ░░░░░░░░ shrinking rivers the shrinking ░░░░░░░░ over in Europe We ░░░░░░░░ seeing a persistent rally ░░░░░░░░ the first few minutes ░░░░░░░░ trading This is bloomberg ░░░░░░░░ this is ritika gupta ░░░░░░░░ up congressman Jim Clyburn ░░░░░░░░ South Carolina jordi webb ░░░░░░░░ is 12 00 P ░░░░░░░░ New York time This ░░░░░░░░ bloomberg There is still ░░░░░░░░ in China that is ░░░░░░░░ A big uncertainty Geopolitical ░░░░░░░░ of the China Taiwan ░░░░░░░░ there among other things ░░░░░░░░ don t think we ░░░░░░░░ in the clear with ░░░░░░░░ to risk The dollar ░░░░░░░░ could come back Lisa ░░░░░░░░ of China s largest ░░░░░░░░ owned companies delisting in ░░░░░░░░ States For more now ░░░░░░░░ Basak joins us What ░░░░░░░░ know Sonali share price ░░░░░░░░ in some of these ░░░░░░░░ adrs primarily alibaba which ░░░░░░░░ one of the biggest ░░░░░░░░ S listings of all ░░░░░░░░ You are seeing that ░░░░░░░░ to other areas The ░░░░░░░░ dragon China index also ░░░░░░░░ Petrochina and China petroleum ░░░░░░░░ chemical also down more ░░░░░░░░ 3 each These are ░░░░░░░░ that said they would ░░░░░░░░ Alibaba has not said ░░░░░░░░ but they said they ░░░░░░░░ seek a primary listing ░░░░░░░░ Hong Kong which many ░░░░░░░░ in the markets he ░░░░░░░░ a precursor to this ░░░░░░░░ want to point out ░░░░░░░░ companies have long said ░░░░░░░░ is a matter of ░░░░░░░░ security law and China ░░░░░░░░ from doing the key ░░░░░░░░ U S Regulators want ░░░░░░░░ to do turn over ░░░░░░░░ information The watchdog in ░░░░░░░░ U S the head ░░░░░░░░ the pcaob which does ░░░░░░░░ auditing here says these ░░░░░░░░ will not stop auto ░░░░░░░░ A bit of a ░░░░░░░░ here You are seeing ░░░░░░░░ significant decline more than ░░░░░░░░ and that golden dragon ░░░░░░░░ index since February of ░░░░░░░░ which is when a ░░░░░░░░ of tensions started to ░░░░░░░░ to life How many ░░░░░░░░ will announce plans and ░░░░░░░░ there be an end ░░░░░░░░ the standoff You look ░░░░░░░░ this chart from 2020 ░░░░░░░░ now the sheer amount ░░░░░░░░ listings we have seen ░░░░░░░░ recent years rack up ░░░░░░░░ the tens of billions ░░░░░░░░ dollars This is a ░░░░░░░░ deal not just for ░░░░░░░░ companies themselves some of ░░░░░░░░ biggest tech giants in ░░░░░░░░ world but the many ░░░░░░░░ and investors globally that ░░░░░░░░ started to invest in ░░░░░░░░ Will that capital market ░░░░░░░░ to close for these ░░░░░░░░ companies listed in the ░░░░░░░░ States if these delisting ░░░░░░░░ continue Lisa Sonali Basak ░░░░░░░░ so much In Europe ░░░░░░░░ pileup Germany s rhine ░░░░░░░░ shrinking to a critical ░░░░░░░░ they could upend traits ░░░░░░░░ the region Abigail Doolittle ░░░░░░░░ been parsing the headlines ░░░░░░░░ this is interesting because ░░░░░░░░ have this headline about ░░░░░░░░ you were talking about ░░░░░░░░ river falling to the ░░░░░░░░ centimeter mark at a ░░░░░░░░ German waypoint The river ░░░░░░░░ in the netherlands or ░░░░░░░░ through the netherlands and ░░░░░░░░ through Germany and Switzerland ░░░░░░░░ is known for castles ░░░░░░░░ it sits on the ░░░░░░░░ side of the rhine ░░░░░░░░ It is at the ░░░░░░░░ point it s been ░░░░░░░░ 2018 This is a ░░░░░░░░ not just from the ░░░░░░░░ of a broader macro ░░░░░░░░ around climate change but ░░░░░░░░ could change the economy ░░░░░░░░ uneconomical for barges that ░░░░░░░░ commodities like diesel and ░░░░░░░░ through that part of ░░░░░░░░ river This could make ░░░░░░░░ more difficult I want ░░░░░░░░ point out another headline ░░░░░░░░ today Drought was declared ░░░░░░░░ most of England by ░░░░░░░░ government We have so ░░░░░░░░ different weather headlines right ░░░░░░░░ The U K grid ░░░░░░░░ the heat wave hitting ░░░░░░░░ that you were talking ░░░░░░░░ The California governor speeding ░░░░░░░░ the drought plan We ░░░░░░░░ in a time of ░░░░░░░░ weather With the river ░░░░░░░░ to a low level ░░░░░░░░ rhine river it does ░░░░░░░░ create issues and worries ░░░░░░░░ the economy and whether ░░░░░░░░ not it s going ░░░░░░░░ create an issue for ░░░░░░░░ some of those commodities ░░░░░░░░ the rhine river Lisa ░░░░░░░░ work Nancy Davis back ░░░░░░░░ us I want to ░░░░░░░░ on Europe How much ░░░░░░░░ we priced in shocks ░░░░░░░░ to the valuations there ░░░░░░░░ how much pain can ░░░░░░░░ priced into the remainder ░░░░░░░░ the year Nancy it ░░░░░░░░ a horrible situation and ░░░░░░░░ are 70 factors whether ░░░░░░░░ are geopolitical drought higher ░░░░░░░░ prices that are accumulating ░░░░░░░░ at once It looks ░░░░░░░░ dire I m nervous ░░░░░░░░ we head into the ░░░░░░░░ season that the heating ░░░░░░░░ about the heating situation ░░░░░░░░ are very inflationary This ░░░░░░░░ going to be more ░░░░░░░░ chain disruptions higher costs ░░░░░░░░ fuel higher costs of ░░░░░░░░ This is adding including ░░░░░░░░ drought to the global ░░░░░░░░ of inflation It is ░░░░░░░░ just a U S ░░░░░░░░ It s everywhere and ░░░░░░░░ hitting emerging markets Lisa ░░░░░░░░ sticky is this This ░░░░░░░░ how the adage goes ░░░░░░░░ people argue that is ░░░░░░░░ we are hearing in ░░░░░░░░ gasoline space Is that ░░░░░░░░ we are going to ░░░░░░░░ regardless of what central ░░░░░░░░ globally do Nancy gasoline ░░░░░░░░ have been going down ░░░░░░░░ are seeing that in ░░░░░░░░ numbers The last CPI ░░░░░░░░ was a huge relief ░░░░░░░░ the Fed in terms ░░░░░░░░ their credibility to say ░░░░░░░░ rate hikes are having ░░░░░░░░ impact CPI before last ░░░░░░░░ had just been going ░░░░░░░░ since January of 2021 ░░░░░░░░ up with no down ░░░░░░░░ The question is will ░░░░░░░░ Fed policy rate hikes ░░░░░░░░ this supply side issue ░░░░░░░░ it solve the labor ░░░░░░░░ crisis Will it solve ░░░░░░░░ Knowing They cannot control ░░░░░░░░ these different geopolitical and ░░░░░░░░ related and energy related ░░░░░░░░ People should not overthink ░░░░░░░░ too much Inflation protection ░░░░░░░░ something any well diversified ░░░░░░░░ should have I feel ░░░░░░░░ people are trying to ░░░░░░░░ or be a macro ░░░░░░░░ worst About whether inflation ░░░░░░░░ going to be increasing ░░░░░░░░ decreasing We live in ░░░░░░░░ real world especially if ░░░░░░░░ are a retiree You ░░░░░░░░ not benefit from wage ░░░░░░░░ Having a well diversified ░░░░░░░░ includes adding inflation protection ░░░░░░░░ before we let you ░░░░░░░░ with your experience with ░░░░░░░░ at Goldman Sachs and ░░░░░░░░ how fragile is the ░░░░░░░░ to additional shock We ░░░░░░░░ about extreme whether Abby ░░░░░░░░ highlighting as well as ░░░░░░░░ potential for other geopolitical ░░░░░░░░ Is the market prepared ░░░░░░░░ tolerate that or will ░░░░░░░░ price swings be more ░░░░░░░░ in the vulnerabilities more ░░░░░░░░ Nancy one thing investors ░░░░░░░░ to keep in mind ░░░░░░░░ they own the bloomberg ░░░░░░░░ index or core fixed ░░░░░░░░ the ag a third ░░░░░░░░ it as U S ░░░░░░░░ Mortgages are short fixed ░░░░░░░░ volatility The homeowner can ░░░░░░░░ their loan whenever they ░░░░░░░░ The owner of the ░░░░░░░░ is short options to ░░░░░░░░ With the Fed reducing ░░░░░░░░ balance sheet with qt ░░░░░░░░ increasing in September it ░░░░░░░░ important for investors to ░░░░░░░░ on the bond side ░░░░░░░░ their portfolio where they ░░░░░░░░ short volatility There s ░░░░░░░░ lot of intention in ░░░░░░░░ from the vix The ░░░░░░░░ is just equity volatility ░░░░░░░░ inventors because of their ░░░░░░░░ and core fixed income ░░░░░░░░ the way the indices ░░░░░░░░ constructed are short fixed ░░░░░░░░ volatility That is what ░░░░░░░░ want to have people ░░░░░░░░ on Know what you ░░░░░░░░ Don t go by ░░░░░░░░ only Strategies that say ░░░░░░░░ fixed income might not ░░░░░░░░ very diversified Lisa Nancy ░░░░░░░░ thank you for being ░░░░░░░░ us and have a ░░░░░░░░ weekend Coming up market ░░░░░░░░ event you need to ░░░░░░░░ in the trading diary.