Nate Silver: GOP Has 60% Chance of Winning Senate in Midterm Elections
Nate Silver: GOP Has 60% Chance of Winning Senate, Could Have a Really Big Win (YouTube)
KARL: "Republicans need six seats, what's the projection? How many are they going to pick up?"
SILVER: "I'd say exactly six. But it's probably six plus or minus five. That means -- "
KARL: "That means they could pick up 11 seats."
SILVER: "They could. Yeah."
KARL: "What you're saying is a 60% chance that Republicans win the senate."
SILVER: "Something like that. Kind of imagine like a bell curve distribution, sort of. This is the most likely outcome. This is what Republicans need to take over. This is 51 for them. So you see probably 60% of the pie is colored in here."
KARL: "Translation for the math impaired, Nate's projection is a 40% chance Democrats hold on, but a 60% chance the GOP wins. With a 30% shot they win big."
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KARL: "Still a lot of time, but a pretty decent chance of a really big win."
SILVER: "That's right."
KARL: "Nate Silver, thank you very much."