Yellen: Chances of Recession by the End of the Year ‘Quite Low’

HELLER: "What is the chance of the U.S. economy being in recession by the end of the year?"
YELLEN: "I think it is quite low. I thin the U.S. economy is doing well. And although I have indicated that we are watching this recent slowdown in the job market carefully, my expectation is the U.S. economy will continue to grow. We have seen a strong — strong pickup in consumer spending and growth in the economy. If the weakness in the labor market for the last couple of months was reaction to earlier slowdown in growth, that looks to be reversing. I remain quite optimistic in the kinds of conditions that have been associated in the past with U.S. recessions. Often that occurs when inflation , the economy is overheated and the inflation has been quite high, the Fed has to tighten the monetary policy. We do not have any conditions in play now, households are in much improved shape. And while there are negative influences in the economy, particularly on manufacturing, stemming from slow growth abroad, to strong dollar, lower commodity prices, very seriously hiring causing job loss in the energy sector, and slowing investment in drilling and mining. Still, overall, the U.S. economy has been progressing even with those negatives. And I think the odds of the recession are low and certainly not what I would expect."