Kornacki: If Trump Gets to 1,199, He Could Use Unbound Pa. Delegates To Put over 1,237

STEVE KORNACKI: We’re going with conservative estimates, a good night in NY, he’d be sitting with 841 Delaware looks good, Rhode Island and Connecticut and let’s say he gets 100 out of those, sitting at 941 the end of the month. 

Indiana the start of May, let’s say he loses Indiana, only gets three districts, that would put him at 950. West Virginia looks really good for him. Nebraska, winner take all, doesn’t look good. Decent nights in Washington and Oregon, you put those together, he could be sitting at 1016 conservatively by the end of the month. 

Takes you to the last day. What looks good for him the last day, winner take all New Jersey. New Mexico is proportional. And California — three for every congressional district. If you got 120 out of California, a rough estimate, 12 out of New Mexico and 51 out of New Jersey, he’d be sitting at 1199, you say he’s short. We have the open convention. Here’s the thing. 

17 [pledged delegates] in Pennsylvania, that real number is 71. There are 54 unbound delegates in Pennsylvania. Right now, the majority of candidates running to be unbound delegates in Pennsylvania are saying publicly on the record they will go with whatever candidate wins their state. Donald Trump is leading Pennsylvania by more than 20 points right now. He could easily get the lion’s share of those and that could put him over 1237, a win in Indiana could put him over 1237. A better showing in the northeast could get hi closer, there are many pathways.