Kerry: ‘If Russia Fights ISIS Alone, Russian Planes ‘Will Fall out of the Sky’

HAASS: “Mr. Secretary, I want to get back to the question of where we go with Russia. They are clearly, along with Iran, doubling down on support for Bashar al-Assad. What chance do you think you have with your counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, to basically say, ‘Okay, we’ll try it your way for, say, six months – double down. And if – and we think when – that doesn’t work, then we’ve got to basically find a post-Assad Alawite leader who’s willing to work with the Sunnis’?”

KERRY: “But I don’t think it’s a question of, quote, ‘us finding.’ I think that’s one of the basic premises here. We have to create a process which has legitimacy for the people of Syria. And we have to have a process where the Russians and the Iranians and the neighbors – all of them, Saudis, Turks, Qataris, a very complicated brew – that you have to bring them together and they can find agreement. That’s the fundamental premise of the Geneva Communique that you will have, by mutual consent, a process of transition. Now, yesterday I had a chance to talk with President Putin at the end of the meeting, and he clearly – I mean, he said to me very directly, “I will think about that. I will think about this challenge of how we win.” Look, this is not easy for Putin. Everybody says, “Oh, Putin’s made a big move.” Well, Putin is there now; and if he wants to fight ISIL alone, that’s a challenge, folks. And if he does fight ISIL alone, how does it work out for Russia to have sided with Assad, sided with Iran, sided with Hizballah, when they’re trying to reach out to the rest of the Sunni world in the region? That’s not a good equation for Russia. And moreover, even if it were, it won’t work to end the violence because the Sunni world will never accept Assad again. Look, this revolution began with young people in Syria demonstrating because they wanted a future. They wanted opportunity, education, and so forth. They went out and they did it. Thugs came out and beat them up. The parents got angry that the thugs beat the kids up, and they went out and demonstrated, and they were met with bullets. They were killed. That’s how this began. And Assad has made a series of choices ever since then that is literally destroying his country. Three-quarters of his country is displaced. It’s in Jordan, it’s in Lebanon, it’s in Turkey, and in the desert. The threat is that those people in the desert and others could become the next acolytes of ISIL if we don’t find a way to join together to go after ISIL. And if Russia is there alone fighting them, guess what? Russia becomes the target and Russia starts seeing – who knows – MANPADs will find their way in there, airplanes will fall out of the sky. They will become vilified. They’ll become the new magnet, together with Assad, for the jihadis. If the threat is jihadism – and it is – and the threat is the destruction of Syria so that all of these refugees are swamping into Europe and changing the whole character and politics of Europe, this is the time to unite to find a way out. And as I said in the beginning, if Assad himself could save this whole process by saying, ‘I will engage in a managed transition where we all work together to stabilize the government, save the institutions of government, and turn on ISIL and preserve Syria.’ That could happen. It all depends on one man, and Russia and Iran should not be so stubborn here that they tie this whole thing up simply because of one person.”