Frank Luntz on West Va. Senate Race: ‘I Believe Joe Manchin Has a Lock on This’
LUNTZ: "Well the Democrats need a 23-seat pickup for them to take over the house. The average in the first term of an off-year election is 32, so for Republicans to keep the house, they actually, they’re swimming up hill historically. There’s another problem for the GOP which is that 41 house incumbents retired this time, house Republican incumbents and that makes it very difficult to fight all these open seat races. Neil I want to give viewers a step by step approach to the first two hours of election night to help them know what to be looking for and the first important state closing at 6:00 P.M. Most of the polls is Indiana and that’s the Senate race. That will probably determine who controls the United States Senate, Joe Donnelly has been trailing, except for the last two, three days when some polls have put him up. If the Republicans pick up Indiana, that probably means they’re going to keep the united States Senate and we should know that very early in the evening. At 7:00 P.M., the Georgia gubernatorial race historic, could be the first African American woman ever to be governor of a southern state, Stacey Abrams is locked in a dead heat versus Republican Brian Kemp. The polls have shown the Republicans leading but too close to call and then at 7:30 another key gubernatorial race most races have not been talked about because everyone is focused on Washington D.C., the truth is, for the long term impact of Congress because these governors determine redistrict ING, this Ohio race is particularly important, the Republican has been down in most polls versus the Democrat. The other key state at 7:30 P.M. Is West Virginia. I believe Joe Manchin has a lock on this, there are some Republicans who would disagree but Joe Manchin’s vote for the trump Supreme Court nominee puts him in a very strong position an then finally at 8:00 P.M., watch the Missouri Senate race, that one I think Claire Mccaskill is in trouble. She’s been in trouble in elections before, but this time most of the polls show her down versus Josh Hawley. Also the surprise of the evening could be in New Jersey. I don’t think so, but Bob Menendez is up by only single-digits and most have him five or six points ahead its been an ugly race between him and the Republican. If there’s a surprise, Tuesday night it’s going to be new Jersey and then finally the Florida gubernatorial and senator races as you heard earlier those are too close to call. If one of those races goes Republican it’s more likely to be the Senate race than the gubernatorial race and in terms of the house, the three-seats you should be watching early in the evening, Carlos cobero which is Florida 26, McArthur which is New Jersey three and Karen handle Georgia is 6 those are three Republican incumbents who are fighting for these battles of their life. If Republicans are able to keep all three, they just might keep the house, at this point it’s more likely that the Senate or Democrats emerge with the majority in the house is somewhere between maybe eight and 12 seats."