RUSH TRANSCRIPT How should ░░░░░░░░ invest with stocks at ░░░░░░░░ near record levels and ░░░░░░░░ at a peak David ░░░░░░░░ CEO of training construct ░░░░░░░░ research firm glad to ░░░░░░░░ you with us You ░░░░░░░░ you are seeing red ░░░░░░░░ for a correction what ░░░░░░░░ those red flags that ░░░░░░░░ you concerned The biggest ░░░░░░░░ is inflation as Bob ░░░░░░░░ saying before on top ░░░░░░░░ that we are seeing ░░░░░░░░ and more companies overstating ░░░░░░░░ core earnings In other ░░░░░░░░ sneaking in little gains ░░░░░░░░ sale or unexpected profits ░░░░░░░░ the short term that ░░░░░░░░ the underlying profitability of ░░░░░░░░ business we are seeing ░░░░░░░░ moving towards historic levels ░░░░░░░░ the last quarter or ░░░░░░░░ that just means that ░░░░░░░░ earnings growth numbers that ░░░░░░░░ are all so excited ░░░░░░░░ aren t really as ░░░░░░░░ as they seem eventually ░░░░░░░░ numbers will settle bag ░░░░░░░░ reality Who are these ░░░░░░░░ who are sneaking in ░░░░░░░░ items are they concentrated ░░░░░░░░ any particular groups or ░░░░░░░░ particular names where do ░░░░░░░░ see you have got ░░░░░░░░ get deep in your ░░░░░░░░ where do you find ░░░░░░░░ nuggets of overstatement That ░░░░░░░░ a great question we ░░░░░░░░ it in a place ░░░░░░░░ nobody looks anymore they ░░░░░░░░ called footnotes n the ░░░░░░░░ in the ks and ░░░░░░░░ qs We ve recently ░░░░░░░░ a technology that scans ░░░░░░░░ and pulls out these ░░░░░░░░ items with an unparalleled ░░░░░░░░ of accuracy we see ░░░░░░░░ names in the S ░░░░░░░░ 500 We recently published ░░░░░░░░ couple of reports where ░░░░░░░░ say you know where ░░░░░░░░ street is wrong because ░░░░░░░░ is too high or ░░░░░░░░ it s too low ░░░░░░░░ also see companies that ░░░░░░░░ earnings on a regular ░░░░░░░░ In a world where ░░░░░░░░ is chasing the next ░░░░░░░░ fad nobody wants to ░░░░░░░░ the tedious work of ░░░░░░░░ through the filings and ░░░░░░░░ at what s really ░░░░░░░░ on David if you ░░░░░░░░ hold there for a ░░░░░░░░ the Fed s beige ░░░░░░░░ just came out we ░░░░░░░░ to get to Steve ░░░░░░░░ for the headlines Most ░░░░░░░░ reporting significantly elevated prices ░░░░░░░░ many firms are raising ░░░░░░░░ selling prices able to ░░░░░░░░ those along to consumers ░░░░░░░░ for future price growth ░░░░░░░░ high overall economic activity ░░░░░░░░ at modest to moderate ░░░░░░░░ an often repeated phrase ░░░░░░░░ the beige book skpli ░░░░░░░░ and labor uncertainty as ░░░░░░░░ as Covid were behind ░░░░░░░░ dows Consumer spending did ░░░░░░░░ grow in a majority ░░░░░░░░ districts That s good ░░░░░░░░ auto sales declined due ░░░░░░░░ low inventory and rising ░░░░░░░░ Manufacturing was the one ░░░░░░░░ spot it grew modestly ░░░░░░░░ robustly in most of ░░░░░░░░ districts The near term ░░░░░░░░ positive but there is ░░░░░░░░ uncertainty especially when it ░░░░░░░░ to Covid on employment ░░░░░░░░ was dampened because there ░░░░░░░░ a lack of supply ░░░░░░░░ workers Something we have ░░░░░░░░ talking a lot about ░░░░░░░░ there was a high ░░░░░░░░ rate workers left for ░░░░░░░░ jobs or retired tolly ░░░░░░░░ care and vaccine mandates ░░░░░░░░ contribute to labor problems ░░░░░░░░ the wage issue wage ░░░░░░░░ is reported in a ░░░░░░░░ of districts Steve why ░░░░░░░░ t you hang around ░░░░░░░░ we bring David Trainer ░░░░░░░░ the conversation Sure One ░░░░░░░░ the things we have ░░░░░░░░ focused on over the ░░░░░░░░ weeks and maybe mondays ░░░░░░░░ the idea of scarcity ░░░░░░░░ is scarce Some supplies ░░░░░░░░ scarce as we go ░░░░░░░░ the winter season there ░░░░░░░░ be some scarcity I ░░░░░░░░ of natural gas that ░░░░░░░░ cause prices to go ░░░░░░░░ and cause a shock ░░░░░░░░ in the United States ░░░░░░░░ maybe more particularly in ░░░░░░░░ what do you think ░░░░░░░░ ahead I think there ░░░░░░░░ it is important to ░░░░░░░░ a distinction between two ░░░░░░░░ of scarcity scarcity that ░░░░░░░░ be fixed with a ░░░░░░░░ fat check because there ░░░░░░░░ sort of excess demand ░░░░░░░░ supply there ready to ░░░░░░░░ of fill that scarcity ░░░░░░░░ it comes to natural ░░░░░░░░ where we have sort ░░░░░░░░ been underinvesting in the ░░░░░░░░ fossil fuel infrastructure for ░░░░░░░░ couple years now no ░░░░░░░░ of money is going ░░░░░░░░ sort of fill that ░░░░░░░░ of a lack of ░░░░░░░░ gas that is going ░░░░░░░░ be needed to heat ░░░░░░░░ if we have a ░░░░░░░░ winter and that s ░░░░░░░░ kind of liquidity crunch ░░░░░░░░ I think could really ░░░░░░░░ the market because no ░░░░░░░░ again how big a ░░░░░░░░ that the White House ░░░░░░░░ Congress or the Fed ░░░░░░░░ you can t fix ░░░░░░░░ and people are going ░░░░░░░░ have to figure out ░░░░░░░░ way to spend on ░░░░░░░░ things or take money ░░░░░░░░ other places to find ░░░░░░░░ way to get warm ░░░░░░░░ they can t do ░░░░░░░░ the less expensive or ░░░░░░░░ way with natural gas ░░░░░░░░ I think is a ░░░░░░░░ threat sort of represents ░░░░░░░░ long term consequences of ░░░░░░░░ of the rational markets ░░░░░░░░ last five 10 15 ░░░░░░░░ where price doesn t ░░░░░░░░ meme stokes specifically price ░░░░░░░░ t seem to matter ░░░░░░░░ like Tesla price doesn ░░░░░░░░ seem to matter capital ░░░░░░░░ chase the bad investments ░░░░░░░░ eventually it comes back ░░░░░░░░ get you when you ░░░░░░░░ not investing in the ░░░░░░░░ that you need to ░░░░░░░░ your day to day ░░░░░░░░ Steve you began our ░░░░░░░░ on the beige book ░░░░░░░░ about the Fed s ░░░░░░░░ of inflation in the ░░░░░░░░ districts It sounded like ░░░░░░░░ don t mean to ░░░░░░░░ the language was alarming ░░░░░░░░ it sounded like inflation ░░░░░░░░ gotten their attention what ░░░░░░░░ we infer from that ░░░░░░░░ about what the Fed ░░░░░░░░ do when it meets ░░░░░░░░ month or what it ░░░░░░░░ do as we look ░░░░░░░░ turn to 2022 which ░░░░░░░░ be under a new ░░░░░░░░ You are an old ░░░░░░░░ Smith Tyler Tyler you ░░░░░░░░ up on the language ░░░░░░░░ the extent of it ░░░░░░░░ you read the beige ░░░░░░░░ and it says most ░░░░░░░░ reported significantly elevated prices ░░░░░░░░ mean that s very ░░░░░░░░ and strident writing right ░░░░░░░░ You start to hear ░░░░░░░░ more and more in ░░░░░░░░ commentary of folks like ░░░░░░░░ waller yesterday eve randy ░░░░░░░░ this afternoon picked up ░░░░░░░░ some of it you ░░░░░░░░ the Fed speech or ░░░░░░░░ changing to express more ░░░░░░░░ more concern about inflation ░░░░░░░░ that some of the ░░░░░░░░ that David was just ░░░░░░░░ about well they are ░░░░░░░░ to hang around it ░░░░░░░░ not clear to me ░░░░░░░░ when you talk about ░░░░░░░░ retirees who left the ░░░░░░░░ force between 1 million ░░░░░░░░ 2 million if they ░░░░░░░░ come back Our reporting ░░░░░░░░ are lacking over 1 ░░░░░░░░ legal immigrants to the ░░░░░░░░ to take jobs out ░░░░░░░░ I am going to ░░░░░░░░ at the October jobs ░░░░░░░░ carefully to see if ░░░░░░░░ of those 2 million ░░░░░░░░ after the schools appear ░░░░░░░░ be open if they ░░░░░░░░ back perhaps they are ░░░░░░░░ lifestyle choices and other ░░░░░░░░ not to come back ░░░░░░░░ those folks don t ░░░░░░░░ back we have a ░░░░░░░░ changed labor force That ░░░░░░░░ going to mean a termently